Nigeria’s Palm Oil Prices Double in 2024 amidst Economic Pressures

The palm oil market in Nigeria in 2024 experienced notable fluctuations, with an overall upward trend driven by strong demand, seasonal production patterns, currency movements, and inflation. Prices increased steadily throughout the year, underscoring the commodity’s essential role in the Nigerian economy.

Quarterly Price Analysis

January–March
Palm oil prices started at ₦1,228,661 per ton in January and rose by 4.8% to ₦1,288,125 in February. However, a slight 3.0% dip occurred in March, bringing the price to ₦1,250,278 per ton. This decline reflects the onset of the production cycle, which typically boosts supply and tempers prices.

April–June
In April, prices fell further by 6.6% to ₦1,166,979 per ton, primarily due to peak production and a stronger naira. Recovery followed in May and June, with prices rising by 5.7% to ₦1,232,917 and 9.9% to ₦1,354,219 per ton, respectively.

July–September
The third quarter saw continued increases: July rose by 1.7% to ₦1,376,667; August by 5.3% to ₦1,449,475; and September surged by 12.0% to ₦1,623,375 per ton. These increases signal supply constraints during the off-cycle period, worsened by inflation.

October–December
Prices climbed sharply in October by 24.2%, reaching ₦2,016,750 per ton. The upward trend persisted in November and December, rising to ₦2,337,375 (15.9%) and ₦2,473,500 (5.8%) per ton. These consistent gains reflect global demand pressures, off-season production, and broader inflation.

Key Price Changes

Highest Price: ₦2,473,500 (December)

Lowest Price: ₦1,166,979 (April)

Overall Annual Increase: 101.2% (₦1,228,661 → ₦2,473,500)

The prices is anticipated to remain high in early 2025 but may likely decrease as we move into the peak harvest season in late first quarters and early second quarters of 2025. The consequences of this rising price levels have their pros and cons for producers and consumers. For consumers, rising prices usually result in a fall in the quantity utilized in their daily consumption, leading to wider food insecurity gaps for both urban and rural populations, particularly for the (urban) poor, who are majorly net food consumers. In addition, high prices of these commodities will decrease net income and purchasing power, and they might lead to lower calorie intake or dietary diversity as consumers adjust their consumption patterns to rising prices.

The increase in palm oil prices in 2024 can be attributed to multiple factors and they include; supply and demand dynamics, production costs, government policies and regulations, seasonality, global market trends, exchange rate volatility and general inflation rate in the economy.

The surge in palm oil prices highlight the need for sustainable solutions to stabilize the market. This will include funding of research in oil palm production, investment in domestic production capacity, and processing infrastructure, and addressing energy cost and foreign exchange volatility could help address the issue of rising price of palm oil in Nigeria.

 Inflation and Demand Drive Nigeria’s coconut Market to New Heights in 2024

Coconut prices in Nigeria in 2024 followed an upward trajectory with intermittent dips, shaped by supply-demand factors, currency changes, and market adjustments. The latter part of the year recorded the highest prices, suggesting rising demand and possible supply chain disruptions.

Quarterly Price Analysis

January–March
The year opened with a price of ₦916,734.60 per ton in January, increasing by 9.9% to ₦1,007,732 in February, likely due to inflation. In March, the price continued to rise by 7.3% to ₦1,081,322 per ton.

April–June
Prices declined by 6.9% in April to ₦1,006,325 and further by 9.4% in May to ₦911,587.90,